Harvest Season Update

By Georgia Campbell

14^th October, 2024

Grain Harvest in eastern Australia is well underway, with Queensland harvest ramping up and headers in western New South Wales starting to take a nibble at early wheat and barley. Windrowing for canola across New South Wales is also well underway, with growers impatiently waiting for the moisture readings to come down. Western Australia and South Australia are also reporting delivery of early tonnes into their sites. As always, when the headers start rolling, the storm clouds start circling. Parts of Queensland have already experienced storm rainfall over the last week, including hailstorms which have been reported to have caused significant damage to crop in isolated storm events. All weather models are aligned for rainfall on the east coast of Australia over the next week. What remains uncertain, is the timing, location, and amounts, which will determine how much longer growers will be required to wait before restarting machines. All growers will have fingers crossed that we do not see any more hailstorms, with crops in the northern part of New South Wales, largely still looking above average for total yield.

All eyes are keenly on domestic and global markets as we move into the harvest period, with canola and wheat continuing to trend upwards over the last month. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released late last week, estimating total global production cuts of 2.8 million mt for 2024/2025, which was below market expectations. Most of this reduction is off the back of global reduction in wheat production, with the European Union, Russia, India and Brazil all revising their winter wheat planting estimates. Global oilseed production remained unchanged for October. Global markets are also continuing to watch the conflict in the middle east unfold; to determine the impact it will have on markets. 

Domestically, markets are still trying to get their heads around the full impact of the frost damage. While the market would appear to have priced in the frost damage in southern New South Wales and Victoria, there is still an element of unknown until headers start moving in that part of the state. There is also discussion through central New South Wales about potential for frost damage that may not be known until headers start rolling in those paddocks and come out empty. Although it is expected to be more isolated through these parts.

Off the back of improved prices and with headers being warmed up, grower engagement with markets appears to be improving. While for the most part it has been enquiry only, decisions are being made off the back of canola and wheat prices about order flow for sales at harvest. With growers more enthused by stronger canola prices, than barley or even wheat.

Overall, the time of year that growers lose sleep over, has arrived, only for them to continue to lose sleep, in an effort to get the crop off as quickly as they can.