Crop Forecast Grows as Harvest Rolls On

By Darcy Ingram
8^th December 2025

The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently released its December Australian Crop Report revising Australia’s winter crop production up to 66.3 million tonnes. This massive forecasted total would represent Australia’s second largest winter crop on record, an impressive 35 per cent above the ten-year average. National wheat production in now expected to hit 35.6 million tonnes up 4% on last year, barley is tipped reach a record 15.7 million tonnes up 18% from 24/25 and canola is up 13% with production now forecast at 7.2 million tonnes. Lentil production is also expected to hit a record 1.9 million tonnes and despite a drop of 7% to 2.1 million tonnes, Australia’s 25/26 chickpea crop will still be it’s second largest on record.    
 
It's been far from a dream run through the winter cropping season with Southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia all struggling through below average rainfall. However, mild conditions and late rain in recent months has certainly provided crops with a late boost. This soft finish has undoubtedly contributed to ABARES lifting its forecast after its last report in September pegged the national crop 4.3 million tonnes under it’s current outlook at 62 million tonnes. 

We’ll now be left waiting for the conclusion of our winter crop harvest to confirm if this whopping target has been achieved. Harvest is all but done through the strong performing cropping areas of Queensland and Northern NSW. Southern NSW will look to conclude in coming weeks, but farmers still have plenty of work ahead of them harvesting the massive crop in Western Australia. Beneficiaries of a cool and wet finish to spring, Victoria and South Australia are experiencing a delayed start to their harvest with crops slow to mature and frequent weather events parking headers.       

Typical of this time of year, prices are certainly looking for guidance based on harvest progress, yield results and farmer selling. Reports of growers favouring sales of canola and pulses over cereals has helped to maintain some stability to wheat and barley values. Despite being more aggressively marketed, canola was until recently holding itself up on strong domestic crush demand. It now appears that we’ve progressed far enough through harvest that coverage feels more comfortable and focus is returning to the broader global fundamentals. This was highlighted with canola values slipping in recent days as Canada’s StatCan reported canola production at a record 21.8 million tonnes. The canola market will be looking for fresh demand inputs to justify moving higher with our large crop battling for export opportunities against an increasingly comfortable supply situation. 

Slow farmer selling locally and abroad appear to be aiding cereals to maintain some stability while harvest rolls on. As previously mentioned, growers appear to be favouring sales of other commodities over their wheat and barley keeping some of the pressure off bids. We are still seeing export demand into some of the Asian homes we enjoy a freight advantage for but with large crops looming abroad, exporter’s bids will struggle to stand in front of a wave of selling.