Crop outlook sees prices decline

By Darcy Ingram
8^th September 2025

Australia’s crops have emerged from the winter months in a far better position than when they entered thanks to timely rainfall in most regions. The outlook has improved so much that in ABARES recent Quarterly Crop Report they increased their estimate of Australia’s total winter crop production to 62 million tonnes. The report forecast Australia’s wheat to reach 33.8 million tonnes, barley 14.6 million tonnes and canola 6.4 million tonnes. An increase in plantings along with improving conditions has also led to improvements for pulse production forecasts with chickpeas to reach 2.1 million tonnes and lentils a record number of 1.7 million tonnes. In total, this represents an increase of 11% since ABARES June 3rd report and if realised would be a 2% increase on last year and our third largest crop on record. Wheat, barley and canola forecasts were increased in every state except for South Australia which only saw a marginal decrease in its expected canola production.  

Western Australia, Queensland and Northern NSW continue to lead the charge with abundant moisture availability giving prospective yields a big boost. Victorian and South Australian crops suffered from a late break and remain behind in development but have rebounded strongly in recent months on good rainfall and warm conditions. Southern NSW also experienced a late break and whilst it received enough rain for emergence, follow up showers have been limited and crops through this region remain most at risk. With the majority of crops now well-placed heading into spring, growers will be looking for a kind finish to achieve the full potential. Some confidence in the weather assisting this goal can be taken from the Bureau of Meteorology’s recent long-range forecast for September to November, with much of the East Coast tipped to receive above average rain. The outlook is less clear for Western Australia however, with a healthy subsoil moisture profile, significant follow up rain will still be important but less necessary.             

Whilst still a ways to go before harvest, Australia is shaping up to have a significant surplus of grain that will need to find ongoing demand both locally and abroad. Domestic markets have been strong on the back of drought impacts and high livestock prices but we will also need to find consistent export opportunities to keep stocks moving and prices elevated. Unfortunately, export demand has been lacklustre in recent months with global supplies comfortable thanks to big harvests in some key Northern Hemisphere producers. Australia is facing strong competition into its major Asian export destinations and it largely remains a buyers market with export values under pressure. Local bids for old and new crop grain have continued to drift lower in recent weeks with the risk to Northern Hemisphere stocks minimal and Australia’s production outlook improving. With supply looking comfortable for now, our prices will largely be guided by how the Australian grower engages with the market. Sedate pricing and production concerns have farmers undersold and bids could come under significant pressure if a wave of selling comes at harvest.