Grain Season Peak

By Laura Smith
1^st December 2025

Winter crop harvest has been progressing well with minimal interruptions to quality and is now about 80% complete across New South Wales, with northern regions finished and southern areas still underway. ABARES forecasts Australia’s winter crop at 66.3 million tonnes, putting the season on track to be the second largest on record. Wheat is expected to reach 35.6 million tonnes, barley 15.7 million tonnes, and canola 7.2 million tonnes.

Northern NSW, Queensland, and Western Australia are leading the season with above average yields, supported by timely rainfall and strong crop establishment. In contrast, southern NSW and Victoria report more variable results due to patchy spring rainfall, though late season showers have helped maintain quality. South Australia and Victoria have seen production rebound compared to last year, while southern NSW remains below average. 

Recent high winds and scattered showers have slowed harvest progress in southern NSW and Victoria, but the rainfall is not expected to affect crop quality. Growers continue to receive strong milling grades on wheat, and sentiment remains positive as harvest resumes at pace once conditions improve.

Global supply trends and stock levels are influencing current pricing, with geopolitical factors and demand shifts particularly from Asia adding volatility to the outlook. Major exporters such as Russia, the EU, and Argentina hold surplus exportable stocks, competing for the same customers in an already saturated market. While Australian wheat remains competitive in some markets due to quality, price premiums have narrowed as cheaper wheat from other origins dominates global trade flows.

International grain production is also at near-record levels, lifting global inventories and easing supply concerns. This abundance is placing downward pressure on world wheat prices, which flow through to Australian markets. Freight costs and currency movements are now critical in maintaining export competitiveness, as global buyers weigh price against quality.