Harvest Begins in Northern NSW While the South Awaits Rain

By Mathew Trewin
21^st October 2025

Harvest season has officially begun across northern New South Wales, with headers rolling into paddocks slightly earlier than anticipated. The recent spell of widespread heat has accelerated crop ripening, prompting growers to get started. Activity is expected to ramp up significantly over the coming days.

Despite some recent wild weather—including isolated hail and rainfall of up to 20mm—crop damage appears to be minimal and largely localised. Most growers have reported only minor losses, with no major widespread damage. Some wheat and canola are being sold straight off the header to meet immediate cash flow needs, but many are holding off until they can assess grain quality once it reaches the bin.

Further south, the picture is more mixed. Crops are showing signs of moisture stress following an exceptionally dry spring. The anticipated positive seasonal outlook was largely undone by a sudden stratospheric warming event over Antarctica, which disrupted typical weather patterns. Despite the dry conditions, most crops are still hanging on and could benefit significantly from the rain forecast for this week. As grain fill continues, yield outcomes are expected to vary widely depending on factors such as subsoil moisture levels and paddock history.

Hay production is also underway, with more crops being cut than last year, though not as extensively as initially expected. The decision to cut for hay is being made on a paddock-by-paddock basis, depending on crop potential and market conditions. On the market front, wheat prices remain range-bound. Global supply remains comfortable, with strong stocks in Europe and the Black Sea region. Additionally, a large Argentine wheat crop is entering global markets at competitive prices, putting downward pressure on Australian values.

Canola markets are currently in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on US renewable volume obligations. Ongoing US government shutdowns are delaying policy decisions, which in turn is stalling demand recovery. Barley markets are similarly flat, with little fresh demand news to drive prices higher.

One positive development is the weakening Australian dollar, driven by concerns over US-China trade tensions and the possibility of another domestic interest rate cut following higher-than-expected unemployment figures. A softer dollar could help Australian grain remain competitive, particularly against Argentine wheat. Locally, dry conditions are creating some feed demand, but with ample grain still available, buying remains cautious and largely hand-to-mouth.