Mixed Harvest Ahead

By Georgia Campbell
29^th September 2025

Spring has arrived in the last week, with above average temperatures, wind and dry weather being felt across the Eastern states. The forecasted wet spring that growers in southern New South Wales and Victoria were hoping for seems to have been walked back, with the weather forecast looking relatively dry and warm in the short term.

Growers in the northern parts of New South Wales and Queensland in comparison will be hoping the wet weather stays away for now, with chickpeas coming off in northern Queensland and canola harvest imminent through northern New South Wales. 

Yield potential in northern New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia continues to increase with the recent spring rainfall coming at the right time. This is while conditions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia continue to hang in the balance. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) as a result has continued to increase their Australian winter crop production forecast by 2% in September for a total of 62 million tonnes for 2025/2026. If realised, this will be the third largest crop on record.

Markets have continued to react to the increasing winter crop potential through Western Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales, with cereal and oilseed prices continuing to slowly soften. While global demand remains strong, growing northern hemisphere production, with world wheat production forecast to be a record high of 819 million tonnes, it is hard for Australian markets to find a path forward for Australian exports, as other destinations are a cheaper option for global markets. New season contracts for domestic feed homes, particularly through northern New South Wales and Queensland have also been difficult to break into, as domestic buyers also watch the crop size increase.

The market as a whole is also watching southern parts of Australia before making any significant decisions, with variable rainfall across southern New South Wales leading to many areas being declared drought affected. Conditions are deceiving, with many areas experiencing a ‘green drought’, with crops and pastures responding to rainfall, but with limited sub soil moisture and the outlook of follow up rain coming, growth remains minimal.  While the crops have benefited from these falls, they have been a long way short of finishing rain for the season and significant follow up rain will be needed to realise their potential. Consumers continue to watch this part of New South Wales closely and will likely need to see the outcome of yield off the header before they respond.

Overall the eastern seaboard grower is in two states of play, with northern farmers about to get cracking on harvest looking for this dry spell, while southern farmers are looking for their finishing rain throughout October. Until export opportunities improve, grain market pricing movement will be limited as Australia faces down its third largest crop. Happy harvesting for those about commence, hopefully it goes smoothly.