Prices guided by harvest progress

By Darcy Ingram
3^rd November 2025

Despite some early challenges from mother nature, Australia’s 25/26 grain harvest is starting to pick up steam with momentum now building across our cropping states. Although only in the early stages for most areas, harvest is well underway in Central and Southern Queensland and with some supportive weather, activity is expected to ramp up quickly through some of the higher yield potential areas of Northern NSW and Western Australia. Not too far from commencing harvest, recent rains have slowed the final stages of crop maturity in south-east Australia and whilst too late to significantly benefit most moisture stressed crops the late rain will help grain fill and boost yields in the further southern regions.

With Australia’s sizeable crop potential all but realised across the country, focus is now largely on how local grain prices will react as tonnes hit the bins and farmer selling likely increases. So far, the harvest delays and slower than expected grower engagement have brought some upside in pricing as consumers look to cover off their nearby demand. Stagnant pricing coupled with production uncertainty has resulted in growers entering harvest undersold and buyers with open requirements so, should selling remain slow, prices will need to hold or strengthen to encourage increased commitment. Should trade continue to build as harvest progresses, prices will likely face downwards pressure with current demand not strong enough to manage a heavy influx of grain. 

Global export values have remained relatively weak with a surge in supply from major producers such as Russia, the European Union, and the United States driving wheat prices to their lowest levels in five years. Barley is also facing poor international demand with feed grain markets well supplied due to bumper global corn harvests and a drop in malt demand. Thanks to increased demand in our livestock industries, domestic markets look more positive and should remain strong for feed grains. Local consumers do however remain wary of ample supplies and appear cautiously slow in their buying wherever possible. 

Similarly to cereals, pulse prices are well below recent year averages due to increased global production and reduced demand. Grain prices sitting at such low levels has many questioning their grain marketing strategies with most hoping to hold as much of their production as possible in hopes of future upside. Cashflow demands will of course require some selling and for those growing it, canola has been widely tipped as the preferred commodity to move on early. Canola has enjoyed relatively strong pricing in comparison to other commodities thanks to tighter global supplies coupled with stronger demand due to changes in biofuel policies and trade flows. China remains the one to watch after imposing heavy tariffs on their largest canola trading partner in Canada earlier this year, with many hoping they would turn to Australia to fill this significant void. Despite some sales, this is yet to be fully realised and Australian traders are now trying to dissect how the recent thawing of trade relations between China and the US will impact our ongoing export opportunities.