2024- gone but not forgotten

 

10^th February 2025
By Chris Ward

Whilst 2024 saw many growers in the Mid and Upper North of the state experience their worst season in living memory, there were other areas of the state, namely parts of Eyre Peninsula and Yorke Peninsula, that literally pulled a rabbit out of a hat to produce a very decent high-quality crop from not much more than subsoil reserves and the skilled execution of the modern farming system.
South Australia producing +/- 5 million tonnes of grain having been belted from pillar to post by mother nature was nothing short of a miracle. The bulk of the Central and Western SA crop was high protein which tends to need strong demand to the East Coast OR to offshore mills to maximise returns all the way along the supply chain and those inputs simply haven’t been there in scale. On the other hand, we’ve seen strong domestic and export demand for feed grades of wheat and barley which provides the SA Mallee and South East with multiple homes for grain stored on farm and in the S&H system. In dollar terms SA port zone wheat prices have yoyoed up and down within the same $20 range for the last 3 months, whist barley has been on a slow but sure incline of almost $20 over that time.
Widening the view WA, NSW and Qld is where the moisture fell (and is still falling in some cases) and the rain equals grain equation rang true. Some of the biggest crops of all time were seen in places (Qld & Western NSW) and whilst in harvest rain was a big challenge for many East Coast growers, they got volume in the bin which is a big driver of gross margin.
Aussie exporters continue to wait for China, our biggest customer who is struggling with cost-of-living pressures, to come to the table with orders. Analysts also eagerly await the wash up of the US imposing (or not) tariffs on Mexico and Canada and increasing them on China. The buzz word of the world wheat market has been volatility, and this sentiment looks to be a continuum in most forward commentary with regards to wheat.
Higher than average temperatures causing an earlier than normal snow melt in the Black Sea region, which leaves crops vulnerable to cold snaps and a forecast February heatwave in India just prior to their harvest, are also things to watch.
Finally, Cargill congratulates all finalists and award winners at the inaugural GPSA Grain Industry award dinner. The well organised and attended event celebrated the remarkable individuals and business who make the SA grain industry one of the most innovative and resilient in the word. A great industry initiative and credit to all involved.
Best of luck to all for season 2025. Whilst it always rains after a dry spell, moisture reserves are all but used up and SA growers will need luck on their side from the weather gods more than ever.