Seeding Season Insights

By Laura Smith
28^th April, 2025

Market fundamentals, currency fluctuations, and government regulations are all dominating markets, having major impacts on commodity and share markets globally. Global grain production is currently in the ground, with all markets closely watching production and demand from importing countries. The USDA reports corn planting at 12%, ahead of expectations of 10-11%. Soybean planting is also at 8%, which is ahead of expectations, along with spring wheat plantings at 17%, far exceeding expectations of 13%.

US winter wheat conditions are at 45%, which is a 5% decline compared to this time last year. Oklahoma conditions have decreased by 5%, Kansas has decreased by 2% to 41% good to excellent, and Illinois soft wheat conditions are at 55% versus 83% this time last year. Spring weather systems are bringing rain, hail, and tornadoes this week in the US HRW growing areas, which have received much-welcomed rains this week, increasing sentiment. Growing conditions will be one to watch in the coming weeks. Black Sea areas have received some concerning frosts and hail, however, there have been no new updates to cause concern at present. Global wheat futures will be one to watch through May, as this is a crucial time for northern hemisphere growing conditions, as well as here on the ground for our Aussie farmers. We have seen surges in futures during May in previous years, as dry conditions hampered the Black Sea growing regions.

Southern NSW and Victorian growers had their eyes set on rainfalls over the weekend, with very patchy showers received. Areas from Griffith received 15mm, while Lake Cargelligo areas only received 4mm. While many growers have started dry sowing their programs with no issues, rainfall over May will be crucial once grains start germinating to avoid any false starts to the cropping year. Moisture profiles are being recorded with good moisture at  greater than 30cm depth around Southern NSW. South Australian farmers are unfortunately enduring very tough drought conditions. Drought packages have been given to farmers to assist with harsh conditions not seen in over 15 years. Western Victorian growers received anywhere from 5-15mm as dry conditions remain persistent. Central West and Northern NSW farmers have once again had their prayers answered with falls of  more than 50mm received in areas around Dubbo and Liverpool Plains. Central Victoria recorded rains of up to 50mm.

Australian grain markets are trying to push lower as fresh inputs to drive the market to the bulls aren’t coming to light, with large areas of the east coast receiving rain where required. Markets have generally been trading sideways to lower in the last week. The Australian dollar has increased up to 63 cents and has stabilized over the last two weeks as Trump reneges on some of his tariff policies, putting in a 90-day pause on some countries. On another note, Aussie urea prices have stabilized to more affordable levels for growers, coming off from February highs moving into seeding.