Sorghum Strength Holds

By James Massina

17^th March, 2025

The sorghum market was keenly watching TC Alfred which brought flooding to parts of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, as well as affecting logistics and delaying shipments out of Brisbane, but had little impact or damage to unharvested crops through those regions. The cyclone did bring beneficial rain to crops in Central Queensland. Most growers are now looking for drier conditions to finish their remaining harvest. The season to date has been a very successful one for many with exceptional yields being reported across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Couple this with prices consistently above $300/mt since the start of the year, returns for growers have been positive. Cash prices for sorghum have firmed over recent weeks, initially on concerns of how the forecast weather might impact unharvested crops. That strength however has been maintained, principally due to anticipated higher demand from China following its tariff on US sorghum. 

Despite sorghum’ strength, wheat and barley markets across the northern and southern regions have been somewhat more subdued with those markets trading a relatively narrow range since harvest. The delivered Downs SFW market has been hovering around $350/mt for a number of weeks with trades above and below that level being reported depending on specific destination or time of delivery. Further south, the Griffith zone has shown a little strength with ASW trading around $340/mt for April delivery. 

Barley markets have shown a little strength recently with the delivered Downs market trading around $330/mt for April forward, up $10/mt in the last month or so. It has been a similar story for the southern markets with those strengthening by a similar amount. The Riverina delivery zone trading up to $300/mt for March/April delivery.

The volatility in canola markets continue and unfortunately the path of least resistance has been to the downside. The delivered Newcastle zone has fallen around $50/mt in recent weeks along with most other markets. Cash markets have come under pressure as a direct result of the US/Canada tariff situation and the uncertainty on global flows of soft seeds as a result. Compounding the issue is now the Chinese tariff on Canadian products. It is still early days with a lot more to play out in this space, not least of all relating to the non-GM vs GM spread. 
As we look forward to planting, all eyes are understandably on the weather forecast with most regions looking for some decent rainfall to kick things off. There is currently tropical moisture in the top end which if it moves southeast could provide this much needed rainfall for Queensland and New South Wales cropping regions. Western Australia has received generous rainfall over recent weeks across much of that state with more forecast which should set them up well. Forecasts for the southern part of the country are more mixed.