Sowing through dry conditions

By Nikita Chawla
19^th May, 2025

As the 2025 winter cropping season unfolds, grain growers across Australia’s East Coast—from southern Queensland through New South Wales to Victoria—are pressing on with sowing, despite facing a tough combination of low soil moisture and a dry seasonal forecast. While some regions have benefited from early autumn rainfall, others are still waiting for a meaningful break to get crops established.

In southern and central New South Wales, sowing is well advanced. Many growers took advantage of April rainfall to get wheat and canola in the ground early. Canola, in particular, has been a priority, with most of the intended area already planted. Where moisture was sufficient, crops are emerging well and showing early promise. However, in drier pockets, dry sowing has been the only option, with growers hoping for follow-up rain to support germination.

Further south in Victoria, the picture is more mixed. Some districts received enough rain to begin sowing in late April, particularly for canola, which has seen strong early uptake. Wheat and barley sowing is progressing more cautiously, with growers closely watching the skies. In areas where soil moisture remains low, many are holding off or adjusting their crop plans to suit the conditions.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s May–July outlook is forecasting below-average rainfall across much of the East Coast cropping belt, particularly in southern New South Wales and western Victoria. This has raised concerns about germination delays, patchy emergence, and reduced early crop vigour, especially for later-sown cereals.

On the global front, the latest USDA report suggests that wheat supplies are expected to remain relatively stable in the year ahead. Production in the U.S. is forecast to improve slightly, and global stock levels are holding steady. While this points to a balanced international market for now, the USDA also flagged that weather conditions in key exporting countries—Australia included—could still shift the outlook. If dry conditions persist across the East Coast, it could reduce Australia’s exportable surplus and tighten global availability, particularly in Asian markets where Australian wheat is highly sought after.