Eyes to the sky for finer weather and frost

By Matthew Trewin
3^rd August,2026

It has been a drier few weeks across Australia’s cropping regions, and most growers have welcomed the sunshine to support plant growth and allow access to paddocks for herbicide and fungicide applications. With the clearer weather, some frosty conditions have emerged, but at this stage there has been little recorded damage. With crops generally more advanced than in other seasons, frost risk remains at the forefront of growers’ minds.

The outlook continues to point to a drier finish to the year, which is weighing on sentiment and influencing selling decisions. Some rainfall in southern areas may eventuate later in the week, and this would be welcomed by most growers as crops move through key development stages.
After recent volatility led to a rally across agricultural markets, more stable geopolitical conditions have tempered prices somewhat. U.S. wheat futures fell on Friday but still recorded their first monthly gain in three months. European wheat futures also eased as profit-taking emerged following gains driven by escalating Black Sea tensions earlier in the week. U.S. corn and soybean futures also ended lower alongside wheat.

An abatement of fresh strikes in the Middle East has been welcome, although the situation remains highly unpredictable. Meanwhile, conflict around key trade routes in Russia and Ukraine continues to influence markets. Despite ongoing disruption, Russian wheat appears to be continuing to find its way into export channels and global markets.

On the oilseed side, strong biofuel demand continues to underpin longer-term support for soybean oil and the broader vegetable oil complex. This remains an important factor providing underlying support to global oilseed markets, despite recent fluctuations across commodity sectors.

At the same time, U.S.-China trade negotiations remain a major focus for global grain and oilseed markets. Any developments in discussions between the world’s two largest economies have the potential to influence trade flows, export demand and broader market sentiment.

While geopolitical tensions and trade developments continue to shape market direction, local seasonal conditions remain the key consideration for Australian growers. Rainfall prospects, frost risk and production potential are likely to remain central to decision-making in the weeks ahead as growers balance marketing opportunities with seasonal uncertainty.