Global Grain Markets Firm Despite Pressure from Record U.S. Corn Crop

By Laura Smith
2^nd Febuary,2026

Global grain markets held mostly firmer this week, supported by ongoing weather risks across the United States and South America, as well as strong U.S. export demand. However, any upward movement was limited by large global supplies and steady harvest pressure coming out of South America.
 
U.S. corn exports were a key highlight, recording their biggest weekly sales since 2021, with 158 million bushels sold. Despite this strong demand, U.S. corn prices remain under pressure following the release of the January 2026 WASDE report, which confirmed a record shattering American corn crop. The USDA lifted 2025/26 corn production by 269 million bushels compared with December, bringing the total crop to 17.021 billion bushels the largest in U.S. history.
This enormous supply increase outweighed the small rise in demand, resulting in a clearly bearish market reaction. Prices softened as traders absorbed the news of higher than expected acreage, record yields, and larger stockpiles, all of which contributed to a heavy supply outlook.
 
Even so, U.S. livestock industries are helping to work through the crop. Cheaper corn has pushed feed demand to its highest level in more than two decades, driven mainly by the poultry and hog sectors. Cattle numbers remain lower than last year, but the industry still requires significant grain. Despite this strong feed demand, it is not enough to offset the sheer size of the crop, and U.S. corn values continue to feel the pressure.
 
Because U.S. corn is the world’s most influential feed grain, its price movements flow directly into global feed markets, including Australia’s wheat and barley sectors. Feed buyers in Asia and the Middle East regularly switch between corn, feed wheat, and barley depending on which offers the best value. As U.S. corn becomes cheaper, it quickly becomes the most cost competitive option, reducing global demand for Australian feed grains.
 
This shift has several knock-on effects. Cheaper U.S. corn places downward pressure on Australia’s export prices, making Australian feed wheat and barley less competitive in major Asian markets. Domestic buyers also respond by lowering their bid levels, as global corn values effectively cap what local feed grains can achieve. As a result, lower grade Australian wheat including ASW, SFW and feed grades is experiencing softer pricing, particularly in export focused states like Western Australia and South Australia. This pricing pressure is now also being felt further east.
 
Adding to this challenge is the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar. A higher AUD makes Australian grain more expensive for overseas buyers, reducing export competitiveness. When the dollar rises, Australian wheat and barley become comparatively pricier than grain from the U.S., Russia, Canada, and Argentina, which can weaken export demand and pull local prices lower. At the same time, a stronger AUD reduces returns for exporters when grain is priced in U.S. dollars, even if global prices remain steady. This often results in lower farm gate values and softer bidding from exporters.