Mixed Rainfall, Mixed Grower Confidence

By Nikita Chawla
3^rd March, 2026

Patchy rainfall and unsettled weather across southern and eastern Australia continue to dominate weather patterns. While recent storms have brought meaningful relief to some districts, falls have been uneven and well short of being season defining in most areas. Large parts of the country remain moisture deficient, and growers are approaching planting decisions cautiously as subsoil reserves vary widely across regions.

Growers who received heavier rain are more optimistic about conserving moisture and preparing paddocks early, while those who missed out remain guarded. Many are reassessing crop programs, particularly canola, where sub soil moisture, input costs and fertiliser availability are emerging concerns. Growing consideration is being given to legumes or cereals as lower risk alternatives. Barley continues to attract interest as a dependable option in a variable start to the season, and early discussions indicate some shift toward barley hectares in parts of Victoria and South Australia.

In the domestic market, steady delivered values has triggered some market activities and some recent volatility in markets may further present opportunities. Some of the recent rainfall and improved prospects for the season, has given more confidence to sell. 

Global grain markets remain influenced by movements in currency, broader economic sentiment, and ongoing seasonal uncertainty. A stronger Australian dollar is making Australian grain less competitive in export markets at a time when other major suppliers are offering strong competition. The evolving conflict in the Middle East has added further uncertainty, particularly in energy and freight markets, causing brief swings in futures prices. While the conflict hasn’t yet caused major disruption to grain trade routes, it has introduced additional risk and uncertainty, reinforcing a more cautious tone across global commodity markets.

Overall, growers appear cautiously encouraged by recent rainfall but continue to act conservatively. Decisions around selling, rotation changes and input commitments reflect a blend of improved surface moisture, rising production costs and ongoing uncertainty in global markets.