Summer Uncertainty 

By Georgia Campbell
27^th January,2026

January marks the first month of the new calendar year. It always seems to flash by, filled to the brim with sporting events to follow, beach trips or dam visits, and hopefully, for most people, some sort of break from farming activities. With tennis fans descending on Melbourne for the Australian Open, it can nearly be guaranteed that warm weather can be expected across the eastern states. Central West New South Wales is set to hit the mid 40s this weekend, with conditions predicted to last for the better part of the week and temperature records expected to tumble through the far west of the state. At the same time, America is forecasting an extreme cold snap, bringing the risk of crop freeze across most of the country.

Hot and dry conditions are front of mind for most growers, with summer storm rain typical of this time of year. While this is saving on fallow sprays for many growers, the outlook for the next 12 months has growers feeling a bit apprehensive about this year’s winter crop prospects. This apprehension is also being seen widely among growers of summer crops. With hit and miss rainfall totals and warm conditions, growers have been hesitant to sell large volumes of sorghum prior to harvest—particularly in northern New South Wales, where some crops are still a month or so away from harvest and would benefit from another rainfall event. Bids have been slowly rising since early December, supported by strong demand from China. Sorghum at these levels is considered the obvious choice for growers to sell, with expectations that selling will ramp up heavily at harvest. Sorghum harvest has kicked off in Queensland, with some early northern New South Wales growers expected to begin in the next week. Harvest for the bulk of the New South Wales crop is predicted to occur through February and March.

The dry conditions have also seen growers bracing for a potentially dry winter cropping season. While sowing is still a few months away, grower selling has been sluggish across the eastern states since the end of harvest, with bids on wheat and canola having fallen significantly due to a combination of domestic and global factors. In comparison, South Australia and Western Australia have seen sufficient grower liquidity. Canola markets have begun to lift over the last week, gaining back a significant portion of the momentum lost prior to Christmas, with positive news around meetings between China and Canada giving the market confidence. The strong Australian dollar over the past week has tempered much of the market upside across all commodities, rising 2.3 percent and hitting a 15 month high compared with the US dollar.

Overall, grain markets remain largely steady as both growers and the market keep cool and soak up the remainder of the summer break, waiting to assess the next step as the season unfolds.